Long-time Slashdot reader SonicSpike shared the Washington Post’s speculation about the possibility of a gigantic solar storm leaving millions without phone or internet access, and requiring months or years of rebuilding:
The odds are low that in any given year a storm big enough to cause effects this widespread will happen. And the severity of those impacts will depend on many factors, including the state of our planet’s magnetic field on that day. But it’s a near certainty that some form of this catastrophe will happen someday, says Ian Cohen, a chief scientist who studies heliophysics at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

Long-time Slashdot reader davidwr remains skeptical. “I’ve only heard of two major events in the last 1300 years, one estimated to be between A. D. 744 and A. D. 993, and the other being the Carrington Event in 1859.

But efforts are being made to improve our readiness, reports the Washington Post:
To get ahead of this threat, a loose federation of U.S. and international government agencies, and hundreds of scientists affiliated with those bodies, have begun working on how to make predictions about what our Sun might do. And a small but growing cadre of scientists argue that artificial intelligence will be an essential component of efforts to give us advance notice of such a storm…

At present, no warning system is capable of giving us more than a few hours’ notice of a devastating solar storm. If it’s moving fast enough, it could be as little as 15 minutes. The most useful sentinel — a sun-orbiting satellite launched by the U.S. in 2015 — is much closer to Earth than the sun, so that by the time a fast-moving storm crosses its path, an hour or less is all the warning we get. The European Space Agency has proposed a system to help give earlier warning by putting a satellite dubbed Vigil into orbit around the Sun, positioned roughly the same distance from the Earth as the Earth is from the Sun. It could potentially give us up to five hours of warning about an incoming solar storm-enough time to do the main thing that can help preserve electronics: Switch them all off.
But what if there were a way to predict this better, by analyzing the data we’ve got? That’s the idea behind a new, AI-powered model recently unveiled by scientists at the Frontier Development Lab — a public-private partnership that includes NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Energy. The model uses deep learning, a type of AI, to examine the flow of the solar wind, the usually calm stream of particles that flow outward from our sun and through the solar system to well beyond the orbit of Pluto. Using observations of that solar wind, the model can predict the “geomagnetic disturbance” an incoming solar storm observed by sun-orbiting satellites would cause at any given point on Earth, the researchers involved say. This model can predict just how big the flux of the Earth’s magnetic field will be when the solar storm arrives, and thus how big the induced currents in power lines and undersea internet cables will be…

Already, the first primitive ancestor of future AI-based solar-weather alert systems is live. The DstLive system, which debuted on the web in December 2022, uses machine learning to take data about the state of Earth’s magnetic field and the solar wind and translate both into a single measure for the entire planet, known as DST. Think of it as the Richter scale, but for solar storms. This number is intended to give us an idea of how intense a storm’s impact will be on earth, an hour to six hours in advance.

Unfortunately, we may not know how useful such systems are until we live through a major solar storm.

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Source: Slashdot – Could The Next Big Solar Storm Fry the Grid?

An anonymous reader quotes a report from the BBC: A thief who stole more than $470 million in cryptocurrency when FTX crashed is trying to cash it out while the exchange’s founder is on trial. Sam Bankman-Fried’s high-profile court case began last week. The former crypto mogul denies fraud. After lying dormant for nine months, experts say $20 million of the stolen stash is being laundered into traditional money every day. New analysis shows how the mystery thief is trying to hide their tracks. […] On the day FTX collapsed, hundreds of millions of dollars of cryptocurrency controlled by the exchange were stolen by an unidentified thief that is believed to still have control of the funds. No one knows how the thief — or thieves — was able to get digital keys to FTX crypto wallets, but it is thought it was either an insider or a hacker who was able to steal the information. The criminal moved 9,500 Ethereum coins, then worth $15.5 million, from a wallet belonging to FTX, to a new wallet. Over the next few hours, hundreds of other cryptoassets were taken from the company’s wallets, in transactions eventually totaling $477 million.

According to researchers from Elliptic, a cryptocurrency investigation firm, the thief lost more than $100 million in the weeks following the hack as some was frozen or lost in processing fees as they frantically moved the funds around to evade capture. But by December around $70 million was successfully sent to a cryptocurrency mixer — a criminal service used to launder Bitcoin, making it difficult to trace. […] Although mixers make it difficult to trace Bitcoin, Elliptic was able to follow a small amount of the funds — $4 million — that was sent to an exchange. The rest of the stolen FTX stash — around $230 million — remained untouched until 30 September — the weekend before Mr Bankman-Fried’s trial began. Nearly every day since then chunks worth millions have been sent to a mixer for laundering and then presumably cashing out. Elliptic has been able to trace $54 million of Bitcoin being sent to the Sinbad mixer after which the trail has gone cold for now. “Crypto launderers have been known to wait for years to move and cash out assets once public attention has dissipated, but in this case they have begun to move just as the world’s attention is once again directed towards FTX and the events of November 2022,” said Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s co-founder.

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Source: Slashdot – FTX Thief Cashes Out Millions During Bankman-Fried Trial

Richard Tribou reports via Phys.Org: NASA’s goal to reduce the costs of the powerful Space Launch System rocket for its Artemis program by 50% was called “highly unrealistic” and a threat to its deep space exploration plans, according to a report by NASA’s Office of the Inspector General released (PDF) on Thursday. The audit says the costs to produce one SLS rocket through its proposed fixed-cost contract will still top $2.5 billion, even though NASA thinks it can shrink that through “workforce reductions, manufacturing and contracting efficiencies, and expanding the SLS’s user base.”

“Given the enormous costs of the Artemis campaign, failure to achieve substantial savings will significantly hinder the sustainability of NASA’s deep space human exploration efforts,” the report warns. The audit looked at NASA’s plans to shift from its current setup among multiple suppliers for the hardware to a sole-sourced services contract that would include the production, systems integration and launch of at least five SLS flights beginning with Artemis V currently slated for as early as 2029. NASA’s claim it could get those costs to $1.25 billion per rocket was taken to task by the audit.

“NASA’s aspirational goal to achieve a cost savings of 50% is highly unrealistic. Specifically, our review determined that cost saving initiatives in several SLS production contracts were not significant,” the audit reads. It does find that rocket costs could approach $2 billion through the first 10 SLS rockets under the new contract, a reduction of 20%. […] Through 2025, the audit stated its Artemis missions will have topped $93 billion, which includes billions more than originally announced in 2012 as years of delays and cost increases plagued the leadup to Artemis I. The SLS rocket represents 26% of that cost to the tune of $23.8 billion. The inspector general makes several recommendations to NASA. The most striking of which is that NASA consider using commercial heavy-lift rockets, such as SpaceX’s Starship and Super Heavy or Blue Origin’s New Glenn, as an alternative to the SLS rocket for future Artemis missions.

“Although the SLS is the only launch vehicle currently available that meets Artemis mission needs, in the next 3 to 5 years other human-rated commercial alternatives that are lighter, cheaper, and reusable may become available,” the audit reads. “Therefore, NASA may want to consider whether other commercial options should be a part of its mid- to long-term plans to support its ambitious space exploration goals.”

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Source: Slashdot – Audit Calls NASA’s Goal To Reduce Artemis Rocket Costs ‘Highly Unrealistic,’ Threat To Deep Space Exploration