Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine this week will have devastating consequences for the people on the ground. Although the terrestrial implications of this war are far greater than those for spaceflight, there will nonetheless be ripple effects felt by space programs around the world.

During a speech on Thursday about US sanctions on Russia as a result of its invasion, President Joe Biden even mentioned space. “Between our actions and those of our allies and partners, we estimate that we’ll cut off more than half of Russia’s high tech imports and will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernize their military,” he said. “It’ll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program.”

So what does this mean? While it is very early in this crisis, this article will attempt to draw the broad outlines of how this conflict may impact spaceflight. As the situation is dynamic and the political landscape is tumultuous, please note that rapid changes are possible.