Early on Tuesday, Hurricane Matthew ravaged Haiti and eastern parts of Cuba with winds of up to 145mph, and it appeared likely to do the same to the Bahamas on Wednesday. Beyond that point, considerable uncertainty remains in the storm’s track as it moves northwest toward Florida. But arguably the world’s best weather model, the European forecast system, now suggests a potential landfall along, or a significant grazing of, Florida’s space coast.

The 12z operational run of the European model, which was initialized Tuesday morning and finished running early in the afternoon hours, shows a weaker trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes region affecting Matthew, allowing the hurricane to follow a slightly more westerly track. The model actually brings the storm’s center ashore on the Florida coast near Cocoa Beach, Florida, and the Kennedy Space Center on Friday morning. Although hurricane forecasts can vary significantly from run to run, with less than three days before such a landfall, this seems to be a plausible outcome.