Enlarge (credit: Aurich Lawson)

Let’s start with Google. The Mountain View-based search giant has been working on its autonomous transport project since 2009—which may as well be forever in tech years. It started with modified Toyotas and Lexuses, then more recently with electric vehicles of its own design. The high-profile nature of Google (and therefore its car project) has arguably helped get people to take the prospect of autonomous driving more seriously than they otherwise might have. In 2012 when Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law legislation in California to allow testing of autonomous vehicles on the road, he did so at Google’s HQ.

But it has not been smooth sailing for Google’s car project; at various times it has been linked to partnerships with Uber, Ford, General Motors, and Fiat-Chrysler. However, only the last of those collaborators has panned out; Ford is going at it alone to build an autonomous ride-sharing vehicle in 2021, and Uber is working with Volvo on a similar vehicle (and with a similar time frame). Despite having seven years of experience—and 1.5 million miles—under its belt, it’s possible that Tesla’s approach of using fleet learning that leverages tens of thousands of vehicles has given the young upstart a big advantage.