In the past 20 years, China has become a key player for global greenhouse gas emissions. Due to its large population, rapid economic development launched it into position as the top-emitting nation, despite having per-capita emissions that are about half those of the United States. Many Western countries have had roughly stable emissions levels, but China’s have still been rising. This means that China’s future trajectory will have a huge influence on the global trajectory.

China’s pledge, submitted as part of the international 2015 Paris Agreement, was to ensure its emissions peaked and stabilized before the end of the deal’s window in 2030. This is no small feat considering the country’s emissions had more than doubled in the last 10 years or so.

Of course, that could include everything from a 2016 peak to a 2029 peak, and a lot of effort has gone into analyzing emissions trends in Chinese industry and electrical generation. As of 2015, some slowing economic growth and government directives were already combining to mark a shift in China’s emissions trend. Some studies have found that China may, in fact, be very close to peak emissions already thanks to transitions toward cleaner industries and renewable energy.