Researchers have used the Stampede1 and 2 supercomputers to complete one of the world’s largest earthquake simulation models: The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). The simulations showed that in the week following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 quake in California would be up to 300 times greater than the week before. The impact of such an improved model goes beyond the fundamental scientific improvement it represents. It has the potential to impact building codes, insurance rates, and the state’s response to a powerful earthquake. In the long run this should help save lives and property and anything that can do that gets my seal of approval.



Among its novel findings, the researchers’ simulations showed that in the week following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 quake would be up to 300 times greater than the week beforehand. This scenario of ‘cascading’ ruptures was demonstrated in the 2002 magnitude 7.9 Denali, Alaska, and the 2016 magnitude 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquakes, according to David Jacobson and Ross Stein of Temblor.

Discussion

Source: [H]ardOCP – Supercomputers Help Scientists Improve Seismic Forecasts for California