Silicon Valley, the place that did more than any other to pioneer artificial intelligence, is the most exposed to its ability to automate work. That’s according to an analysis by researchers at the Brookings Institution, a think tank, which matched the tasks that OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4 could do with the jobs that are most common in different US cities. From a report: The result is a sharp departure from previous rounds of automation. Whereas technologies like robotics came for middle-class jobs — and manufacturing cities such as Detroit — generative AI is best at the white-collar work that’s highly paid and most common in “superstar” cities like San Francisco and Washington, DC.

The Brookings analysis is of the US, but the same logic would apply anywhere: The more a city’s economy is oriented around white-collar knowledge work, the more exposed it is to AI. “Exposure” doesn’t necessarily mean automation, stressed Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings and one of the study’s authors. It could also mean productivity gains. From the Brookings report: Now, the higher-end workers and regions only mildly exposed to earlier forms of automation look to be most involved (for better or worse) with generative AI and its facility for cognitive, office-type tasks. In that vein, workers in high-skill metro areas such as San Jose, Calif.; San Francisco; Durham, N.C.; New York; and Washington D.C. appear likely to experience heavy involvement with generative AI, while those in less office-oriented metro areas such as Las Vegas; Toledo, Ohio; and Fort Wayne, Ind. appear far less susceptible. For instance, while 43% of workers in San Jose could see generative AI shift half or more of their work tasks, that share is only 31% of workers in Las Vegas.

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