The launch of the Artemis I mission in mid-November was spectacular, and NASA’s Orion spacecraft has performed nearly flawlessly ever since. If all goes as anticipated—and there is no reason to believe it won’t—Orion will splash down in calm seas off the California coast this weekend.

This exploration mission has provided dazzling photos of Earth and the Moon and offered a promise that humans will soon fly in deep space again. So the question for NASA, then, is when can we expect an encore?

Realistically, a follow-up to Artemis I is probably at least two years away. Most likely, the Artemis II mission will not happen before early 2025, although NASA is not giving up hope on launching humans into deep space in 2024.