{"id":1186607,"date":"2023-09-28T09:50:57","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T13:50:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/?p=1186607"},"modified":"2023-09-28T09:50:57","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T13:50:57","slug":"ai-is-getting-better-at-hurricane-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/?p=1186607","title":{"rendered":"AI is getting better at hurricane forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"rss-wrap\">\n<figure class=\"intro-image intro-left\">\n  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Hurricane-Irma-800x450-1.png\" alt=\"Hurricane Irma as seen by satellite in 2019.\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\" style=\"font-size:0.8em\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/Hurricane-Irma.png\" class=\"enlarge-link\" data-height=\"1080\" data-width=\"1920\">Enlarge<\/a> <span class=\"sep\">\/<\/span> Hurricane Irma as seen by satellite in 2019. (credit: <a rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"caption-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/news\/180409-hurricanes\">NOAA<\/a>)<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<div><a name=\"page-1\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Hurricane Lee wasn\u2019t bothering anyone in early September, churning far out at sea somewhere between Africa and North America. A wall of high pressure stood in its westward path, poised to deflect the storm away from Florida and in a grand arc northeast. Heading where, exactly? It was 10 days out from the earliest possible landfall\u2014eons in weather forecasting\u2014but meteorologists at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, were watching closely. The tiniest uncertainties could make the difference between a rainy day in Scotland or serious trouble for the US Northeast.<\/p>\n<p>Typically, weather forecasters would rely on models of atmospheric physics to make that call. This time, they had another tool: a new generation of AI-based weather models developed by chipmaker Nvidia, Chinese tech giant <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-023-06185-3\">Huawei<\/a>, and Google\u2019s AI unit DeepMind. For Lee, the three tech-company models predicted a path that would strike somewhere between Rhode Island and Nova Scotia\u2014forecasts that generally agreed with the official physics-based outlook. Land-ho, somewhere. The devil, of course, was in the details.<\/p>\n<p>Weather forecasters describe the arrival of AI models with language that seems out of place in their forward-looking profession: \u201cSudden.\u201d \u201cUnexpected.\u201d \u201cIt seemed to just come out of nowhere,\u201d says Mark DeMaria, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University who recently retired from leading a division of the US National Hurricane Center. When he started a project this year with the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration to validate Nvidia\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nvidia.com\/en-us\/on-demand\/session\/gtcspring22-d4113\/\">FourCastNet model<\/a> against real-time storm data, he was a \u201cskeptic\u201d of the new models, he says. \u201cI thought there was no chance that it could work.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/?p=1971778#p3\">Read 13 remaining paragraphs<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/?p=1971778&amp;comments=1\">Comments<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#013;<br \/>\n&#013;<br \/>\nSource: Ars Technica &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/?p=1971778\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AI is getting better at hurricane forecasting<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enlarge \/ Hurricane Irma as seen by satellite in 2019. (credit: NOAA) Hurricane Lee wasn\u2019t bothering anyone in early September, churning far out at sea somewhere between Africa and North America. A wall of high pressure stood in its westward &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/?p=1186607\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1186608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27,110],"tags":[73],"class_list":["post-1186607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ars-technica","category-unfiltered-rss","tag-ars-technica"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1186607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1186607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1186607\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1186608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1186607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1186607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.prime-wow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1186607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}